Prediction: World No. 5 Italo Ferreira Will Take The El Salvador Pro

The forecast is in, surf fans, and the WSL looks set to score again, sorta. A combination of mid-period, 13-second swell and a longer 17-second swell is set to get things underway around the 9th of June, though this is subject to change, as we all know, with the wind conditions swirling around on the charts. As it stands, expect waves in the head high to overhead range for the start of the event with either some morning sickness or light onshore ruffle. This is a crucial ingredient in making sense of the stacked men’s and women’s draws. For me, this event looks purpose-built for Brazilian Italo Ferreira.

After 18 months struggling to find form, during which he was almost cut from the tour, the former world champ and two-time WSL Final Five competitor is back in a big way following his last win at all-time Teahupo’o. That result saw him rocket 11 places up the leader board into fifth, with a sniff of a potential third crack at the Final Five Showdown. This next event couldn’t play more into his strengths and he will arrive high on his own supply, huffing deep on the magical mist that is confidence, for the first time since the beginning of the 2023 tour season.

The once impoverished Baia Formosa-grown grom, who famously rode his first waves standing up on his fisherman-father’s cooler lid, ultimately found his feet at a nearby right point with eery similarities to Punta Roca, particularly if the winds are unfavorable. 

If you’ve watched Italo surf his home break, you’ll notice it is almost never clean. His backside approach is born out of a million reps on this bumpy right point and is made out of cast iron as a result, able to carve through the bumps, crack the coping with unparalleled venom and pivot into the wildest rotations. Given his aerial acrobatics, it’s easy to forget how lethal his backside rail game is. Remember that his breakthrough win on tour came at Bells in 2018 where he beat the all-Australian point break titan, Mick Fanning in the final no less. He backed that up with a win two events later at Keramas, another hollow, rippable right – this time over the regular-footed Spartan, Michel Bourez. Italo’s highlight reel of backside belts, high-velocity cartwheeling finners, and loopy, lofty backside full rotation air reverses is enough to make you want to set fire to your quiver and take up mogul skiing.

He’s won at Snapper and Merewether – both rights – and has come second to Medina in one of the greatest backside point break clinics of all-time at maxing J-Bay in 2019. He’s my tip to take this thing out before deepening his choke hold on a Final Five berth in front of a parochial home crowd at Brazil in the following event.

With defending El Salvador champ Filipe Toledo on hiatus, the next most dangerous man in the draw has to be 2022 champ and 2023 runner-up Griffin Colapinto. The electricity and creativity honed over thousands of reps at Lowers are sure to find their mark yet again in El Salvador. His disastrous last place finish in Tahiti, which saw him relinquish the yellow leaders jersey to John Florence, will only stiffen his resolve. No offshore winds, no worries for this prince of new school prog-surfing. A little ruffle and crumble is just more coping for the Cali whiz kid to hit and pivot over. Expect frontside gaffs galore, technical aerials and grabs, and the usual lightning rips off the top.

Looking down the list from there, the usual crapshoot applies in trying to find a winner. The host of candidates spans nearly the entire draw, depending on who can find rhythm and manage the psychological aspect of getting-it-done in a 30-minute window.

A fully fit John Florence is a threat in any conditions, though his record here is poor, with a 17th in his one start (defeated by Rio Waida). Ethan Ewing is a point break specialist and the best frontside rail technician on tour today, maybe ever. Conventional wisdom suggests he’s a frontrunner to take this event out, but as suited as he is to this wave, the potential of onshore winds could put a stick in the spokes of his fluent, down-the-line slice and dice game. This has been the pattern for Ewing at this wave in the past with a Quarterfinal loss to Italo in 2022 and a Round of 16 defeat to Liam O’Brien last year. O’Brien, whose surfing was honed an island south of Ewing at South Stradbroke (and Burleigh Heads) is a stylistic doppelgänger though arguably has even better ability in the air. He is a dark horse to break through for his first world tour win here (you read it here first!)

After a breakthrough performance in Tahiti, Ramzi Boukhaim is another threat to go deep. Raised on the right points of Morocco, he brings a leaden backhand approach to El Salvador. 

The spontaneity and sublime oceanic intuition of Jack Robinson is a feature in all conditions. A master of the art of styling in waves that will kill you, he’s spent plenty of time honing his small-wave game on the Gold Coast in recent years and, you might recall, had his first elite tour win on a Mexican point break.

I’ll try not to scramble your Fantasy picks too much by ripping through the rest of the surfers on tour with the potential to do well on a right point but a few names to keep your eyes on include the Durban-raised, two-time J Bay winner, Jordy Smith; Cronulla-born, north-coast point break based, Connor O’Leary; and the Huntington-born, futuristic frontside exponent, Kanoa Igarashi. You can never count Gabriel Medina out, either.

Gone are the days of goofy footers being at a disadvantage on right points. Caroline Marks proved this resoundingly by taking out the El Salvador event last year on her way to claiming a maiden world title – again on rights at Lower Trestles. Her tempo, timing, and ability to generate serious power and a variety of angles on her backhand has earned comparisons with Mark Occhilupo, and makes her the favorite to take back-to-back Surf City El Salvador Pros, as long as she can survive the early rounds, which have proved a bit of a bogey for her in this her world title defense year.

With 2022 winner Steph Gilmore “Search”-ing the islands of Indonesia with the Rip Curl team, and Carissa Moore on sabbatical, the 2024 iteration of the El Salvador Pro is likely to be dominated by the new school frontside theatrics of Caity Simmers and Molly Picklum, both of whom bring serious rail work to the arena along with the ability to launch aerials and throw fins. 

The strong likelihood of light onshore conditions during the event tends to favor those with the ability to surf above the lip. No one on tour does it better than Simmers and Picklum. A poor result in Tahiti saw Simmers relinquish the yellow leaders jersey to Brisa Hennessy, so you would expect the Californian to arrive in El Salvador locked in and determined to arrest a potential dip in form during this Central and South American leg. For Picklum, who started the year as the toast of the surfing world, a pair of ninths followed by a pair 5ths, will be sounding the alarm bells for her and coach, Glen “Micro” Hall. Pressure does crazy things and she’ll be feeling it at this event, as she needs a strong result to avoid a slide down the ratings.

When it comes to consistency, none hold a candle to Brisa Hennessy in 2024. She’s made the semi-finals or better in every event so far and comes off a last start runner-up to the Tahitian tube freak Vahine Fierro, putting her atop the women’s rankings. A win is surely just around the corner, although they’ve been thin on the ground for the Costa Rican citizen of the world. After finishing fifth in the world in 2022 (while battling a non-cancerous brain tumor), last year she dropped off tour at the mid-year cut, and has won just one event in her career, at Sunset in 2022.

Despite a less than convincing year, Tyler Wright has found success in El Salvador in the past, having placed second there last year. Right points are her speciality, having won the bulk of events in her long and decorated career at Bells, Snapper, Honolulu Bay, and Margaret River. At 30 years old, she is the most senior competitor in the draw but is still a long way from being done. After years of battling injury and health conditions, including a mysterious African flu and a nasal deformity that required surgery, she arrives in El Salvador with a full bill of health for the first time in a long while. Will a win here kickstart an unlikely world title bid? This Australian hopes so.