2024 is the fourth incarnation of the WSL Final’s format. We’ve had three world title’s decided on the cobblestones. That’s six individual world titles, spread between five surfers, decided by 31 heats. It is, just about, enough of a data set to see some trends and patterns, which might help us give a guide to the very near future. With less than a day before the 2024 world champions are decided here are some of the stats that matter, and a few that probably won’t.
The Men’s World Titles Follows The Rankings
In the three WSL Finals, the No. 1 ranked male surfer has claimed the World Title. The Wozzle will say this is proof of concept – the seeding system works and that the work done on the CT at Chopes, Pipeline, Fiji et all remains pivotal to your chance of success. All those top-seed wins were emphatic too with neither Gabriel Medina nor Filipe Toledo requiring a third-set tiebreaker.
The Men’s Is More Condensed
That should be music to World No. 1 John John Florence’s ears, who needs two heat wins to claim a third World Title. There is one caveat though; in all three previous Finals, the No.1 surfer has held more than a 10,000-point lead going into Trestles, suggesting a surfer in form that has dominated the field all year. Florence’s rating lead over Griffin Colapinto however is less than 3000-points and under 10,000 to No. 3 Jack Robinson. 2024 has a much more condensed field, and the Finals could reflect the tightness of the five surfers with a potential for more upsets.
Related: WSL Finals Surf Forecast: Possible Run Day Set For September 6
Average Age Of Women Shows a Changing Of The Guard
The average age of the five women this year is 22.1 (or .42 of a Kelly Slater), and even that is slightly scaled up by the “veteran” Tatiana Weston-Webb who is a very youthful 28. That compares to an average age of 23.8 in 2023, a significant drop from the 27.8 average in 2022. With the absence of Carissa, Steph and Johanne Defay, the next generation has quickly stepped in to fill the void. Simmers is 18, Picklum 20. With teenagers like Sierra Kerr, Erin Brooks, Betty Sakura-Johnson and Sawyer Lindblad waiting in the queue, expect the average age to go even lower in the future.
An Unlikely Rookie
In what is a remarkable statistic, the only rookie in either of the men’s or women’s field is a relatively unknown by the name of John John Florence. Now 31, and having been in the surfing spotlight since he was the size of a sand flea, we aren’t sure whether the term can be applied. And even if it could, it wouldn’t be very helpful to John. No Final’s rookie has ever made it to the last match-up, let alone claim a World Title.
You Need Your A-Game For The Final
“It’s hard to come in at lunch, have your first surf and stop a surfer who has real momentum,” Carissa Moore told the WSL this week. That rang true when the No. 1 was defeated last year by a rampaging Caroline Marks. History, and the numbers, show that you need to bring big numbers to the final match-up to take the title. Last year Filipe Toledo registered the highest heat total (17.97) of the day in the first of the best of three heat format. Marks also broke the 17-point barrier to hold off Moore. In 2021, Medina came in fresh and posted the highest two-wave heat total of any of the preceeding heats. Getting to the Final is hard, winning often requires the best surfing, and the biggest numbers, of the day.
Goofy vs Natural / Lefts and Rights
This year’s split is one goofy (Italo) to four regulars in the Men’s, and 2:3 in the women’s. Those ratios roughly reflect the average of World Titles won at Trestles. Of the six claimed, a third have been won by a member of the superior stance, ie goofy. Whether the wave favours the forehand or backhand is subjective, but while Trestles is considered a peak, 78% of counting waves last year were scored on the rights. Of course, next year in Fiji, that figure will drop considerably. This year looks set to have the smallest waves seen since the format was introduced in 2021, and that could affect the ratio.
Related: World No. 1 John John Florence Talks Titles, Lowers and Olympic Surfing