The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season started with a bang. Category 5 Beryl was the strongest storm to ever form in July, and through mid August the hurricanes just kept spinning. Fortunately Beryl weakened significantly before landfalling in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula (and again in Texas), while Category 1 Debby brought widespead flooding to Florida’s big bend area in early August, exactly one year after Hurricane Idalia hit the same zone. It’s rare that a hurricane strikes one coastline twice in such a short period of time, and nearly unheard of it happening three times.
Until now.
After a strangely quiet 6-weeks in the Atlantic, Hurricane Helene was born today. And as (bad) luck would have it, the forecasted track has it hitting Florida’s big bend, again. And this time, potentially as a Major Category 3 storm.
NOAA
“Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday,” says the official NHC forecast. “The risk of impacts from life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials.”
While the exact landfall is always a moving target, the spaghetti models are tightly clustered, so we have a decent idea of where it will end up Thursday night.
On its way, Helene is forecasted to move very quickly through the Gulf after skirting the Yucatan tomorrow, moving from near Mexico to Florida’s big bend in about 24 hours, limiting the potential for good surf. While there will likely be a window in the Panama City area on Thursday, everyone in that zone should be paying close attention in case the storm takes an unexpected jog west.
In fact, if you live anywhere in Florida, watch the NHC’s updates these next two days. As always, things can and will change. And sometimes by the hour. A major hurricane is nothing to take lightly, especially for those living in the big bend area where the NHC is forecasting a storm surge between 10-15 feet. That’s just terrifying stuff.
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