It’s official: Tropical Storm Erin has been upgraded to Hurricane status.
As of Friday, the Category 1 storm (but expected to grow) is moving towards the Caribbean, then it’s slated to curve northeast off the United States’ East Coast by next week – bringing with it heavy rains, flash flooding, gusty winds, and most likely waves.
Regarding the latter, some scientists are predicting potentially huge surf.
Speaking to Newsweek, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, senior scientist in ocean modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: “The latest forecast does indeed indicate that the largest significant wave height could reach values in excess of 50 feet with an associated most likely largest wave of more than 100 feet.”
That’s…absurd. Of course, 100-footers aren’t going to be hitting New Smyrna Beach, up to the Outer Banks, and beyond. But there will be swell, that’s for sure.
Meanwhile other experts, like AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva, downplayed the size potential of the waves. Yet still, it’s significant. DaSilva said: “While 100 feet can’t be ruled out, I think they would only be possible if the storm become a Category 4 or 5 storm. I think waves near the center of 50-75 feet are much more realistic (assuming a Category 3 storm).”
Related: Tropical Storm Erin Expected To Be First Hurricane For The Atlantic
For more regarding the surf from Erin, here’s a public advisory statement from NOAA:
“Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office.”
One thing’s for certain, regardless of the superlatives and possible overhype, Erin will bring that familiar dichotomy of destruction and pumping surf, as often associated with East Coast hurricane season. One one hand, there will be waves for those who partake; on the other, there will be damage and danger for others.
Stay tuned for more, and keep close to the real-time surf forecasts from Surfline.