Photo: WSL/Tony Heff
The World Surf League’s one-day, winner-take-all Finals Day format is, at the very least, controversial. The reason being? It used to be that the surfer at the end of the year – the one who competed the best in all types of conditions, not just Lower, Trestles – would win the world title. But that changed in 2021; it was Finals Day from then on.
So, instead of continuing to rant and rave about the merits of this controversial format, why not make our picks for who we think will win. Filipe Toledo, arguably unstoppable at Lowers, is not in the draw this year. Neither is Gabriel Medina, although it looked like he was going for a last-minute, hail mary push. Could this be John John Florence’s year to take down the new format? Or Griffin Colapinto to ride that Matthew McConaughey inspiration from last season? On the women’s side, it looks like a toss-up between Caitlin Simmers and Caroline Marks. Caity has the “wow” factor; Caroline has the experience, especially after gold in the Olympics.
Who will take it? We’ll have to wait until September 6th-14th to find out. But in the meantime, here’s the picks from SURFER’s well-educated, highly-passionate staff. Keep reading.
Photo: Matt Dunbar / WSL
Jake Howard
Who will win? (men)
I’m going with Griffin. In a conversation with him today he said he’s already picked out the spot for the after party. I like that kind of confidence. John’s also feeling good and seems to be in great place mentally. The surf’s going to be in the head-high zone, which probably favors Griff and his local knowledge. Interesting to note, both surfers will be riding boards they’ve had on ice since El Salvador. I’m saying Griff gets John in three heats and becomes the first California guy to win a title since Tom Curren.
Underdog Threats (men)
Ethan Ewing doesn’t seem like much of an underdog, but he was riding such a high of emotion last year after coming back from his broken back, he’s kind of fallen out of the spotlight a little. That doesn’t make him any less dangerous. His rail game in playful Lowers could be no laughing matter.
Who won’t win? (men)
To go from fifth to first is a lot, and I’m not sure Italo has the endurance. He puts so much into every performance and every heat, he can gut his way through a couple heats, but eventually I have to imagine the pace of the day and all the energy that goes into it will prove to be event too much for nuclear-powered Italo.
Who will win? (women)
I’m going California sweep. Caity wins the women, Griff takes the men. Caity’s cool as ice, sleeping at home, hanging with friends and has a great board under her feet. She’s been her before, has some experience to draw from, and with a progressive X factor in her arsenal, she’s gets the title in 2024
Underdog threats (women)
Tatiana Weston-Webb came so close to a gold medal at the Olympics, the fire in her belly could put her over the top in the world title hunt. She wants it more than anyone in the draw. She rips in big surf or small. She’s spent a ton of time at Lowers and will be fully prepared. She could easily spoil the American party at the top of the leaderboard.
Who won’t win? (women)
It’s hard to image a heat where Brisa Hennessy out surfs Caroline Marks or Caity Simmers. She shines in hollow, heavy surf, but with the forecast being what it is, this thing’s coming down to precision turns and maybe some above-the-lip flourishes. If it was a tube-riding contest, Brisa probably moves up into the “Underdog Threat” category, but smallish Lowers is a different animal. That said, Brisa will continue to be one of the most inspirational surfers and kind souls on the Championship Tour today.
August Howell
Photo: Brent Bielmann / WSL
Who will win? (men)
He hasn’t had the best year by his standards, nor does he have much momentum going in, but I can’t look past Ethan Ewing. His rail game was nearly untouchable at the 2023 WSL Finals when he handily beat Joao Chianca and Griffin Colapinto, then pushed Filipe Toledo to the brink in their best-of-three final. His backhand is just as surgical as his forehand, so he can get it done in rights and lefts. He hasn’t won an event in 2024, but if he can replicate that scintillating form, it will take a hail-mary aerial assault from his opponents to get the better of him.
Underdog threats (men)
This is Griffin Colapinto’s last chance to clinch a world title on his home turf, and he’s got a good shot to do it. I reckon he’ll have to take to the air to prove a point of difference in his surfing, something he didn’t do against Ethan in 2023. Though he works hard to stay even-keeled through mindfulness and meditation, you’d have to think he’s feeling good after winning Fiji. If he unleashes his chi into the wave he grew up on, Griffin may become California’s first man to win the world title since Tom Curren in 1990.
Who won’t win? (men)
Jack Robinson had a helluva year, with wins at Sunset Beach and Margaret River. He’s become one of the most well-rounded surfers in the world, and his 3rd-place ranking is proof. If this format were at Cloudbreak (which will be in 2025), he’d be a favorite to win. But at Lowers, the neutrality and softness of the face don’t play into Jack’s strengths as much as they do the other guys. It’s a tough ask for Jack to beat the walking spring box that is Italo Ferreira or the rail voodo of Ethan Ewing.
Who will win? (women)
Caity Simmers was 17 years old when she showed up as the fifth seed in the 2023 WSL Finals. She beat Molly Picklum and then lost to eventual World Champion Caroline Marks. Now with another year under her belt and the No. 1 seed, it feels like she could handle any woman in a best 2-out-of-3 matchup. She’s surfing with way more confidence this year and knows how to deliver under pressure ( three wins at Pipeline, Bells and Saquarema). Barring bad wave selection, Oceanside will host a parade this month.
Underdog threats (women)
Feels a bit weird to call Caroline Marks, the reigning world champion and Olympic gold medalist an underdog, but here goes. In her first showing in the Lowers finals, Caroline Marks made the fewest mistakes (if any) in the women’s draw. She knows Lowers better than anyone in the women’s draw and should be able to ID the best waves if the forecast doesn’t produce much. A Caity-Caroline final would lead to bedlam on the rocks in front of heaps of divided Californians.
Who won’t win? (women)
There are no lifetime achievement awards on the WSL, but Tatiana Weston-Webb should get something pinned on her jersey. As a 10-year CT vet, she’s one of the most experienced women currently on the tour (Only Tyler Wright and Lakey Peterson have more seasons). She showed a lot of grit as the only surfer (man or woman) to move up into a qualification slot in Fiji. She nearly took a title from Carissa Moore in 2021 with solid backhand blasts at pumping Lowers. But I just don’t see her versatility coming together against this crop of four 20-something-year-olds ahead of her.
Jon Perino
Photo: Ryan "Chachi" Craig
Who will win? (men)
Gotta go with John this year. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, but JJF is just having one of those years on the CT that make him really tough to bet against. While we’re not really looking at a pumping forecast this week, he’s got the speed and power to displace buckets of water no matter what size we see. And we all know his air game is one of the most consistent and reliable ever seen on Tour. He’s got the whole package to rip Lowers to pieces. I really just feel like he deserves it in 2024… he’s certainly earned it.
Underdog threats (men)
Italo. While I wouldn’t really call him an underdog here, he does sit in the #5 spot, so he’s got the most work to do. That being said, we all know that he has plenty of energy to burn, so pulling off a Stephanie Gilmore-esque tear through five rounds in one day doesn’t seem like too tall of an order for the Brazilian. Plus, with a mediocre forecast on tap, the smaller conditions certainly suit the lightning-fast approach and flashy air game of this guy.
Who won’t win?
Ethan Ewing. While I’m a huge fan of the powerhouse rail game of Ethan, like I mentioned above, the forecast isn’t looking too spicy this week, so I gotta place my bets on the surfers in the draw that are lighter on their feet and loftier in the air. Ethan definitely has the rail game to muscle out just anybody on Tour (when the waves are pumping), but I think these smaller conditions are gonna pose a huge disadvantage for the Australian.
Who will win? (men)
Caity Simmers. She is such a rock star, that even if I didn’t think the odds were in her favor, I’d still probably bet on her. I feel like the conditions this year are going to suit her style wonderfully. She’s light, nimble, she has a sneaky air game, and she can still bury the rail unlike anybody else on Tour. She draws different lines, and approaches sections in a refreshingly unique way. I think the judges are going to appreciate that and reward her accordingly. She’s leading the charge in this new generation of progressive women, and I’d bet this is the year we’ll finally see a changing of the guard.
Underdog threats (women)
Molly Picklum. I think Molly has a great chance to raise some eyebrows at this event. She’s sparky, stylish, and has a smooth rail game that I think will really shine at Lowers. She’s a fierce competitor that I think can take out anyone on Tour on any given day, should she successfully channel her “beast mode” within.
Who won’t win? (women)
Tatianna Weston-Webb. While she’s certainly a powerhouse in bigger, heavier conditions, I think the smaller forecast is going to be her Achilles heel this year—Not to mention that it’ll be an all-day, uphill battle for her in the 5th place spot. We all know she has a solid backhand that’ll fit right into those Lowers rights, but I still think the spry approach of someone like Caity will overshadow anything she can pull out of her repertoire in head-high waves.
Zander Morton
Photo: Ryan "Chachi" Craig
Who will win (men)
Italo Ferreira. We’ve yet to see a final 5 upset on the men’s side, but this is the year that changes. Ala Steph Gilmore in the 2022 Finals, Ferreira will pick up momentum with each win, going from fifth to first to win his second world title. Bold call? Maybe. And if the forecast called for bigger surf, I wouldn’t be making it. But in shoulder high lowers, Ferreira is electric. Also: He’s the only goofy in the draw, and when that NW wind picks up in the afternoon, his frontside full rotation air is a big advantage and ultimately the move that wins him the title.
Underdog threats (men)
Basically every surfer underneath Florence should be an underdog threat. That said, I believe Colapinto, Ewing, Robinson and Florence are all at a disadvantage thanks to this year’s finals forecast, so I’m flipping the script and calling them all underdogs.
Who won’t win (men)
John Florence. Which might be considered a travesty, considering he’s technically won the world title already, and now he’s being asked to win it twice. That’s not a knock on Florence. It’s just that Lowers is not his strongest venue to begin with, and this forecast is not helping his cause. If it’s not Ferreria in the final, it’ll be Colapinto. Either way, I think the advantage goes the other way.
Who will win (women)
Caroline Marks. Momentum is real, and so is Marks’ backside hammer. Sure, Simmers is in poll position, and absolutely shreds at Lowers, but small-ish lowers is actually an advantage to Marks’ style of surfing. I think if Marks wins one match and ends up in the final, it’ll be hard to keep her from going back-to-back, especially after winning a Gold medal last month.
Underdog threats (women)
Molly Picklum. She’s gotta be the most exciting surfer in the finals. From her attack at Sunset and Pipe to her air and rail game, she’s the most complete surfer in the draw. I still think she’s at a disadvantage with his average forecast, but if she can make it to the final match versus Simmers, I like her odds.
Who won’t win (women)
I don’t see Tatiana Weston-Webb going all the way. That’s partly because I’m picking Ferreira to pull it off on the men’s side, and also because Weston-Webb excels in bigger, more powerful surf. In small Lowers, it’s an uphill battle going from last to first, especially when your repertoire is inherently limited as a goofy on a predominant right. Sure, Ferreria faces the same issue. But Ferreria has a crazy backside air game, whereas Weston-Webb will need to be on the best waves to really open up. While I won’t be surprised to see her take some names, I just don’t see her taking the title.
Related: Who Will Win Gold at Teahupo’o? The SURFER Staff Makes Their Picks.