Amongst surfers, the terms El Niño and La Niña are hot topics, discussed frequently in car parks and lineups across the globe, and speculated about in terms of waves, weather, and what’s to come. But how well does the average surfer understand these meteorological phenomena? Likely, not very much. (I, myself, am guilty of this naïveté.)
Thankfully, there are experts out there, more learned meteorologist experts, to explain such things to us woefully incompetent armchair surf forecasters.
And so, as the 2025/26 season has officially been deemed a La Niña period, let’s dive in and see what that means, exactly, in terms of waves. To do so, we’ve tapped Jack from Duune – a forecast app, primarily focused on the waves of Southern California – to break down what La Niña entails for this winter season, and for surfers across the globe.
First of all, to be clear, “we’re officially in a weak La Niña,” Jack explains.
Also, for a little primer before we delve in, region by region, here’s a little explainer:
“During La Niña, strong tradewinds blowing east to west push the East Pacific’s surface water to the west,” Jack elucidates. “To take its place, cold water from the depths of the East Pacific shoots up to the surface — cooling the air above it, too. This creates a big cold pressurized bubble in the East Pacific that pushes the Jet Stream north.”
Related: The Pacific Ocean Officially Enters La Niña
Furthermore:
“Where cold polar air and warm tropical air meet is the Jet Stream. Storms form on the Jet Stream around the globe and pump out swells, snow and rain — northern areas like the Aleutians, the Pacific Northwest and the North Atlantic turn on during La Niña. This winter, on a weak La Niña, the Jet Stream still pushes north, but not as far as it would during a strong La Niña.”
Okay, with that out of the way, now let’s dive in and see what this season’s weak La Niña may bring for various surf regions across the globe:
California and Hawaii
Getty Images
“For the crew chasing generational Maverick’s or earning a spot at the Eddie, strong La Niña seasons have delivered XXL Northern swells. But these XXL swells (and more user-friendly ones too) struggle to hit Southern California and Hawaii because the Jet Stream steers storms north. Luckily, the cold bubble in the East Pacific isn’t a static permanent structure. Normally, this bubble prevents storms from hitting California, but when that bubble wavers, so does the Jet Stream. At that moment, if there is a storm brewing and the Jet Stream bends south, a massive rapid developing storm can send solid swells at generous angles.”
Indonesia and Australia
Ed Sloane / WSL
“Out west in Indonesia and down under in Australia, the tradewinds that pushed all the warm water west are the key ingredients to storm activity – but can bring heavy onshore winds to a lot of popular spots. Since booking boat trips can be expensive, having excess wind can lead to more swells and if it’s too windy, just park the yacht around the corner.”
East Coast and Caribbean
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
“On the east coast and in the Caribbean, we recently saw Hurricane Melissa go nuts. During La Niña less vertical winds are there to break apart these hurricanes. But don’t let fall fool you — Melissa isn’t a La Niña forerunner. La Niña winters typically bring less Nor’easters up north and sub-par surf down south.”
Europe
Helio Antonio/HBO
“For anyone who needs an excuse, La Niñas work well in Europe. While we’re not in a strong La Niña, the Jet Stream in the North Atlantic will still waive around, let storms build and light up spots in Portugal and France. That same crew chasing the XXL swells in the Pacific will have their eyes on the big wave European monsters like Nazare and Mullaghmore.”
In Summary…
“So…. the call this winter — slightly more active November and December than last year but standard surf season overall. Southern California, Hawaii and Indo have some good windows but we’ll need to cross our fingers for The Eddie to go. If things turn dark and we get skunked, Europe’s the best bet for a surf trip.”
Download the Duune App here; and follow along on Instagram here.
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